Louisiana Tech

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	192.0
Current RPI:	192
Expected SOS:	155
Current SOS:	155
Current Record:	15-16
Expected Record:	15-16
Current Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-3
Current OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC RPI:	130
Expected OOC SOS:	157

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-16	192.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	H	96-95	W	100%
11-18	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	H	71-58	W	100%
11-21	George Mason (201.0)	A10	N	64-77	W	100%
11-22	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	N	61-63	W	100%
11-29	Alabama (42.0)	SEC	A	77-74	L	0%
12-6	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	H	83-85	L	0%
12-9	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	H	91-62	W	100%
12-12	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	H	71-75	L	0%
12-16	Texas (51.0)	B12	A	75-60	L	0%
12-21	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	N	74-62	W	100%
12-22	Fort Wayne (209.0)	Sum	N	85-76	W	100%
12-28	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	A	69-68	L	0%
12-30	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	A	78-65	L	0%
1-4	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	H	76-78	L	0%
1-6	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	H	97-88	W	100%
1-11	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	A	72-57	L	0%
1-13	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	A	74-62	L	0%
1-18	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	H	66-65	W	100%
1-20	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	H	69-54	W	100%
1-27	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	H	89-66	W	100%
2-1	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	A	62-67	W	100%
2-3	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	A	71-68	L	0%
2-8	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	H	83-65	W	100%
2-10	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	H	69-82	L	0%
2-15	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	H	73-60	W	100%
2-17	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	H	70-87	L	0%
2-22	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	A	74-72	L	0%
2-24	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	A	74-64	L	0%
3-3	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	A	72-64	L	0%
3-7	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	N	62-68	W	100%
3-8	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	N	62-58	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Louisiana Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Louisiana Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	26.19	26.19	45.74	45.74	-2.23	-2.23
Southern Miss	CUSA	4.02	4.02	39.29	39.29	-0.86	-0.86
UTSA	CUSA	3.97	3.97	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UTEP	CUSA	3.95	3.95	32.14	32.14	-1.41	-1.41
UAB	CUSA	3.92	3.92	58.62	58.62	0.68	0.68
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	3.91	3.91	75.00	75.00	1.96	1.96
North Texas	CUSA	3.90	3.90	46.43	46.43	-0.28	-0.28
Old Dominion	CUSA	3.87	3.87	76.67	76.67	2.06	2.06
Marshall	CUSA	2.46	2.46	68.75	68.75	0.92	0.92
Western Kentucky	CUSA	2.46	2.46	68.75	68.75	0.92	0.92
Rice	CUSA	2.36	2.36	17.86	17.86	-1.52	-1.52
FIU	CUSA	2.36	2.36	35.71	35.71	-0.67	-0.67
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	2.36	2.36	33.33	33.33	-0.79	-0.79
Charlotte	CUSA	2.27	2.27	18.52	18.52	-1.43	-1.43
Alabama St.	SWAC	1.67	1.67	26.67	26.67	-0.78	-0.78
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	1.67	1.67	42.86	42.86	-0.24	-0.24
Jackson St.	SWAC	1.66	1.66	34.48	34.48	-0.52	-0.52
Evansville	MVC	1.64	1.64	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Montana St.	BSky	1.64	1.64	37.93	37.93	-0.40	-0.40
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	1.64	1.64	79.31	79.31	0.96	0.96
Alabama	SEC	1.64	1.64	54.55	54.55	0.15	0.15
Texas	B12	1.64	1.64	56.25	56.25	0.20	0.20
Fort Wayne	Sum	1.61	1.61	51.85	51.85	0.06	0.06
George Mason	A10	1.61	1.61	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	1.61	1.61	80.00	80.00	0.97	0.97
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.24	0.24	9.68	9.68	-0.19	-0.19
Auburn	SEC	0.20	0.20	78.12	78.12	0.11	0.11
James Madison	CAA	0.19	0.19	29.03	29.03	-0.08	-0.08
UT Arlington	SB	0.18	0.18	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Indiana St.	MVC	0.18	0.18	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.18	0.18	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.18	0.18	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.17	0.17	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.16	0.16	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Texas St.	SB	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.16	0.16	12.50	12.50	-0.12	-0.12
Troy	SB	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.14	0.14	24.14	24.14	-0.07	-0.07
Bradley	MVC	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.13	0.13	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.13	0.13	44.12	44.12	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.13	0.13	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Texas Tech	B12	0.13	0.13	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
VCU	A10	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.11	0.11	73.33	73.33	0.05	0.05
Murray St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	82.76	82.76	0.07	0.07
New Mexico	MWC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.11	0.11	12.50	12.50	-0.08	-0.08
Lamar	Slnd	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	83.33	83.33	0.07	0.07
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	32.00	32.00	-0.04	-0.04
Belmont	OVC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	8.00	8.00	-0.09	-0.09
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.10	0.10	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.10	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.10	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.09	0.09	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Denver	Sum	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.08	0.08	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
North Dakota	BSky	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.08	0.08	30.77	30.77	-0.03	-0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	22.22	22.22	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Appalachian St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Fresno St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
LSU	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.07	0.07	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Utah Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Mercer	SC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Butler	BE	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
SMU	Amer	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00